Summary
Did you know that the terms "bureaucracy" and "information worker" were both invented by sociologists, long before either thing existed? Did you know that the 2008 crash was accurately predicted by an anthropologist? Many people don't realize that social research drives robust foresight. This is the kind of value even a very junior UX researcher can contribute. In this talk, Sam Ladner will describe how researchers can sift and track weak signals, how to create trend reports, and how to predict areas of change.
Key Insights
-
•
Strategic foresight requires a clear point of view and confidence to influence strategy and gain a seat at the table.
-
•
Weak signals, not just obvious tech breakthroughs, often reveal deeper social and organizational changes.
-
•
Max Weber identified bureaucracy's rise by observing the shift from irregular slips of paper to standardized filing systems.
-
•
Combining social, technological, economic, environmental, and political dimensions (STEEP) leads to richer foresight insights.
-
•
WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Democratic) biases limit research applicability, so diversity in perspectives is crucial.
-
•
Foresight frameworks like scanning, interpretation, analysis, imagination, and strategy formulation help organize foresight work practically.
-
•
Backcasting, imagining a future and working backward to determine steps, can complement forecasting effectively.
-
•
Rigor in foresight is about justifying choices and trade-offs, not strictly following the scientific method.
-
•
Early spotting of trends, like the Zoom example in 2014, may seem premature but builds valuable knowledge over time.
-
•
Jillian Tett’s multidisciplinary analysis predicted the 2008 financial crash by integrating cultural tolerance for risk with tech innovation and finance trends.
Notable Quotes
"This talk is more than anything else about confidence: confidence to lead, confidence to predict, confidence to have a seat at the table."
"People felt whiplash from immense change that seemed to arrive nonstop in the 1890s."
"The mundane object of paper, when standardized, signaled sweeping social and bureaucratic change."
"The boss’s son was no longer the default backup boss once rules were written down and accessible."
"In many tech companies, trend hunting focusing only on tech misses social, economic, and political changes that matter."
"The key difference in foresight work is interpretation–making sense of what you’re scanning."
"Rigor is about explaining why you made trade-offs, not about the scientific method."
"Sometimes you’re too early. Don’t fear it. Keep your powder dry and your trends."
"Ask yourself who is not included in this future and how your own perspective is projecting bias."
"Using social, technological, economic, environmental, and political changes together lets you predict phenomena, like the 2008 crash."
Or choose a question:
More Videos
"It is imperative that we maintain hope, even when the harshness of reality may suggest the opposite. — Paola Freire"
Angelos ArnisNavigating the Rapid Shifts in Tech's Turbulent Terrain
October 2, 2023
"Spreadsheets might just be the best tool for everything in design ops."
John Calhoun Rachel PosmanBring your DesignOps Story to Life! The Definitive DesignOps Book Jam
October 3, 2023
"Instead of saying no, try asking why and focus on the problems to be solved rather than specific stakeholder solutions."
Alfred KahnA Seat at the Table: Making Your Team a Strategic Partner
November 29, 2023
"Outside of our keyholes lies information that we’re completely oblivious to that can come to haunt us."
Dan WillisEnterprise Storytelling Sessions
June 3, 2019
"If you feel like a doormat trying to earn your place in design, sometimes the best advice is to change jobs."
John Maeda Alison RandAbout Design Organizations (Videoconference)
May 13, 2019
"I learned I had to stop asking questions and start telling them what I was thinking, then say tell me what you think."
Anat Fintzi Rachel MinnicksDelivering at Scale: Making Traction with Resistant Partners
June 9, 2022
"How do you create a sense of craft in an environment fraught with ambiguity, complexity, and anxiety?"
Uday GajendarThe Wicked Craft of Enterprise UX
May 13, 2015
"The early sessions focused on definition: what is design ops, is it program management or strategy?"
Kristin SkinnerTheme 1 Intro
September 29, 2021
"We locked everyone in a room for months to review 1000 pages using the bond raising method—it worked because we aligned on principles and focused on the job."
Maish NichaniSparking a Service Excellence Mindset at a Government Agency
December 9, 2021