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Summary
What is wargaming and how can the process be used to inform and refine strategic planning? First, what is wargaming? Terry will start with a short presentation giving the historical perspective and military usage of wargaming. Second, will be how the process can inform and refine strategic planning and decision-making. Here we will pivot to describing non-military contexts/examples for wargaming (strategic planning/decision support). Third, he will solicit ideas participants might have for problems where wargaming could be helpful, and together will quickly iterate a wargame concept for the juiciest of these ideas.
Key Insights
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War gaming originated as a military tool to predict opponents' moves and enhance strategic decision-making, dating back to Sun Tzu.
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War games involve competing teams with interactive consequences, unlike tabletop exercises where players collaborate on the same team.
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Human interplay is crucial; without it, simulations become static models rather than true war games.
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Quality of war gaming information depends heavily on who participates—experts on relevant topics provide more accurate insights.
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War games are designed to improve decision-making, not necessarily to identify a clear winner or loser.
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Multiple runs of the same war game often yield different results due to human factors and decision variability.
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Move-countermove formats slow the process but allow for richer analysis and better understanding of each decision's impact.
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War gaming processes can be applied beyond the military—in business, advocacy, and leadership transitions—to anticipate responses and craft strategy.
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Though not widely adopted yet, AI and visualization tools hold promise to enhance war gaming’s responsiveness and impact.
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War gaming shares conceptual parallels with UX design practices, like prototyping and feedback loops, serving to de-risk decisions before full implementation.
Notable Quotes
"War gaming has been around for a very long time. There's a record that Sun Tzu used war gaming to understand his enemy."
"A war game requires more investment than a tabletop exercise, which requires more than a rehearsal of concept or seminar—typically."
"If you didn't have human interplay, that would be a model or simulation, you just hit play and it runs."
"The key difference between a tabletop exercise and a war game is in a tabletop exercise, we’re all on the same team."
"Quality in war gaming is about the quality of information from the right people, not an objective measure of winning or losing."
"People even with the same information make different decisions a week later. That's what makes war games interesting."
"Move-countermove games are easier to adjudicate because they slow the pace, allowing detailed analysis of each action."
"Some war games deal with no-win scenarios like all-out thermonuclear war, which is why we spend so much time trying to prevent them."
"War gaming is creative and systematic work to collect, organize, and analyze information to increase understanding and improve decision-making."
"Plans are useless, but planning is everything—war games help test and improve plans in ways that pure planning cannot."
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