Summary
Whenever we make changes, we affect the lives of people in the future -- and that responsibility can feel enormous. In this talk, Devon Powers will share some of her research into people who forecast the future for a living, revealing their strategies as well as their pitfalls. She will also discuss how you can engage in research with a sense of responsibility for tomorrow.
Key Insights
-
•
Technological innovations like the metaverse replicate real-world problems rather than erase them, exemplified by harassment incidents in virtual spaces.
-
•
Excessive optimism in futures thinking can mislead by obscuring the complex challenges that remain unsolved.
-
•
Driverless cars illustrate how promised futures often fail due to unaddressed practical and ethical challenges.
-
•
Trend forecasting both predicts and shapes culture, making the future a self-fulfilling narrative influenced by forecasters' biases.
-
•
Dominant futures narratives tend to center wealthy, white, cosmopolitan men, sidelining diverse perspectives and systemic struggles.
-
•
Afrofuturism offers a critical paradigm shift by centering Black experiences and demanding futures that confront rather than erase historical injustices.
-
•
True globality in futures work requires deep, resource-intensive engagement with diverse worldviews, beyond superficial inclusion.
-
•
A performance of cool and obsession with gadgets can distract from addressing fundamental human needs like clean water and food security.
-
•
Accountability in futures work is emerging as vital, especially as consultants and forecasters realize their influence on real-world outcomes.
-
•
Sober optimism and tragic optimism frameworks help maintain hope while acknowledging struggle and unintended future consequences.
Notable Quotes
"The days of polyanna-ish futures are over; we must embrace challenges rather than ignore them."
"Technology does not solve our problems; it brings into digital spaces all of the good and bad from the real world."
"At the end of the day, if I do a project today on 2025, you’re not going to be in that chair in 2025 and neither am I."
"Diversity initiatives without accountability are hollow."
"The future is trendy these days — the idea of the future has become part of the zeitgeist."
"Futures without events create superficially different worlds that keep existing infrastructures of power intact."
"Afrofuturism shows us that the future must reckon with the past and acknowledge difference and struggle."
"Sometimes the most important changes we can make are very mundane — clean water, food security, freedom from violence."
"The future is not a toy; accountability matters in terms of how we construct it."
"To make the future democratic means to share our practice, to be transparent, and to think about who we’re imagining futures for."
Or choose a question:
More Videos
"The 1500 are designers, we don't distinguish strictly between UX or visual or industrial—they all bring design to the org."
Adam Cutler Karen Pascoe Ian Swinson Susan WorthmanDiscussion
June 8, 2016
"Many product managers got their roles because they know the business or subject matter, but they don’t know how to manage product development."
Peter MerholzThe Trials and Tribulations of Directors of UX (Videoconference)
July 13, 2023
"If you haven’t designed who your teams are and who your players are, expecting people to comply with standards won’t work."
Lisa WelchmanCleaning Up Our Mess: Digital Governance for Designers
June 14, 2018
"We need to rethink how our cities are designed and function."
Vincent BrathwaiteOpener: Past, Present, and Future—Closing the Racial Divide in Design Teams
October 22, 2020
"Growth and learning is your long term change management plan."
Brenna FallonLearning Over Outcomes
October 24, 2019
"Working from home during the pandemic is hard because it’s fun only when you can actually leave your home."
Tricia WangSpatial Collapse: Designing for Emergent Culture
January 8, 2024
"Proto personas created by cross-department participants helped us build unbiased, relevant survey questions."
Edgar Anzaldua MorenoUsing Research to Determine Unique Value Proposition
March 11, 2021
"The toy shouldn’t be the goal of play, but a tool or a process that unlocks the unlimited possibilities set forth before a child."
Designing Systems at Scale
November 7, 2018
"You’re never testing an idea purely; you’re always testing the implementation of that idea."
Erin WeigelGet Your Whole Team Testing to Design for Impact
July 24, 2024
